Assessing the Adaptive Capacity of Informal Settlements in Bauchi Metropolis to Urban Flooding: A Vulnerability Analysis

Hauwa Saleh Abdullahi, I. Y Chindo, Haruna Adamu, Mudathir Qossim

Abstract


Urban flooding is a major challenge in informal settlements in sub-Saharan Africa, driven by climate variability, rapid urbanisation, and inadequate infrastructure. This study assessed the adaptive capacity of four flood-prone informal settlements in Bauchi Metropolis, Nigeria, using a mixed-method approach involving 384 household surveys, 22 Key Informant Interviews, 10 Focus Group Discussions, and GIS-based spatial analysis. Results showed that 58.9%–74.6% of built-up areas lie within flood hazard zones, while the overall Adaptive Capacity Index (ACI) was low (mean = 0.31), indicating high vulnerability. Social capital was the strongest adaptive asset due to strong community support networks, whereas institutional capacity was the weakest because of limited government engagement and poor dissemination of flood warnings. Household adaptation was largely reactive and constrained by low income, insecure land tenure, and limited knowledge, with household income emerging as the strongest predictor of adaptive capacity (β = 0.61, p < 0.001). The study concludes that vulnerability is primarily structural rather than behavioural and recommends strengthening institutional support through an Integrated Flood Resilience Framework, improved land tenure formalisation, and dedicated funding for urban resilience. 

Assessing the Adaptive Capacity of Informal Settlements in Bauchi Metropolis to Urban Flooding: A Vulnerability Analysis


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